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The Transportation and Climate Initiative (TCI) Carbon Market Proceeds Estimator is an Excel-based application designed to evaluate possible outcomes of various carbon allowance prices assuming implementation of a transportation cap-and-invest program. The Estimator reflects a range of illustrative scenarios that the TCI states could adopt beginning in 2022, as contemplated by the TCI's draft Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) released in December 2019. The Estimator allows a user to explore the data by selecting individual states, the TCI region as a whole, or by a sub-region. The user can then calculate near-term impacts of TCI-modeled carbon allowance prices associated with three illustrative GHG reduction trajectories — i.e. 20%, 22%, 25% reductions — as modeled in the publicly released TCI reference case in September 2020. A user can also choose from several U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption forecasts, and the user may select customized hypothetical allowance prices. The TCI Carbon Market Proceeds Estimator will be updated when and if the MOU is finalized and parameters of the program are actually defined. Note that the estimator is not a dynamic modeling tool; it translates user defined allowance prices and fuel consumption forecasts into state-level carbon proceeds estimates.
The Proceeds Estimator (Microsoft Excel) can be downloaded here.