Load Forecast Analysis: Projected vs. Actual Electricity Demand

System planners, utilities, and other analysts depend on forecasts of annual electricity use and peak demand to make critical resource and policy decisions.  This analysis compares historic and actual electricity demand from a range of sources at the national, RTO/ISO, and utility-scale levels.
 

The analysis finds that:

• Forecasts typically improve within 1-2 years of the forecast year
• Forecasts are sometimes more than 10 percentage points higher than actual demand when made 3-5 years in advance of the forecast year
• Overall, demand forecasts over the last ten years have been significantly revised downward