Modeling Analysis of EPA's Clean Power Plan

Update June 1, 2016: A new version of the modeling report has been published using updated assumptions.  Click here to read more.

In January 2016, M.J. Bradley & Associates published a comprehensive modeling analysis of the Environmental Protection Agency’s final Clean Power Plan, with insights and constructive feedback from several utilities, trade associations and NGOs, including the Natural Resources Defense Council. The study finds that the Clean Power Plan can achieve significant reductions of carbon pollution from the nation’s power sector while preserving a diverse energy mix.

A press release on the report is available here.

MJB&A has been coordinating an additional round of analysis, again using the IPM model, to evaluate the extension of the renewable energy tax credits for wind and solar, alternative gas price forecasts, and other scenario changes. On December 18, 2015, as part of the omnibus spending bill, President Obama signed into law a five year extension of the investment tax credit (ITC) for solar energy projects and the renewable production tax credit (PTC) for wind projects. The 30 percent ITC will be extended for three years, then ramped down incrementally through 2021, remaining permanently at 10 percent for utility-scale projects beginning in 2022. The full value of the 2.3 cent/kWh PTC will be extended through 2016, then dropping 20 percent each year through 2019. These solar and wind incentives were not included as part of the assumptions for the first round of MJB&A IPM scenarios presented here and therefore their impacts are not reflected in the results.

MJB&A has also been working to develop a “data visualizer” tool that will summarize state-level results for states of interest for members of our working group for the forthcoming round of analysis. The following is a beta example of the data outputs from the IPM model for the states of Pennsylvania and Ohio (these results are from our initial round of analysis without the ITC/PTC extension), and outputs for Virginia (from the second round of analysis that includes the ITC/PTC extension):

Data Visualizer: Pennsylvania (excludes ITC/PTC extension)
Data Visualizer: Ohio (excludes ITC/PTC extension)
Data Visualizer: Virginia (includes ITC/PTC extension)