New Vehicle GHG Emissions Estimates Under Deep Decarbonization Strategies

This report estimates the change in U.S. fleet average GHG emissions from new vehicles through 2050 under a deep decarbonization scenario. It distinguishes among "tailpipe emissions" (carbon dioxide from the burning of petroleum) and "non-tailpipe emissions" (which includes both non-carbon emissions from vehicle operation and upstream carbon emissions from use of electricity as a vehicle fuel). The report finds that under deep decarbonization strategies with high levels of electric vehicle penetration, and aggressive efforts to decarbonize electricity generation, non-tail-pipe emissions will be an increasing percentage of total GHG emissions from new vehicles through at least 2030. However, despite continued increases in electric vehicle sales, non-tailpipe GHG emissions will fall as a percentage of total GHG emissions after 2030, due to continuing reductions in the carbon intensity of electricity generation.